Category Archives: Weekly Security Analysis

Analysis and Security Weekly,
Issue 8: “Reborn” ELN: limited security risks; window to negotiate

After a long period of virtual inactivity the ELN has, since 2012, managed to present itself as a resurgent armed group, reactivating their violent actions in targeted regions, while seeking to appear as a political actor to start a negotiation process with the State.

The ELN `escalation´
From the beginning of the Santos Administration the ELN reactivated their fronts and increased its offensive actions (-and clashes) against the security forces. This rise in activity was exacerbated in 2013, when their activities doubled compared to the previous year, and this situation has been maintained until today

Events with ELN participation (per year)


The FARC’s unilateral ceasefire leads to a historical drop in violence levels

Issue 3, 2015
Analysis and Security Weekly – Special Edition.

Period under study: December 20, 2014 – January 20, 2015.
Date: January 20, 2015.

At the end of the first month of the conditional and unilateral ceasefire implemented by the FARC, CERAC is yet to register a single violent or offensive act that could constitute a breach of the ceasefire and could be attributed to this guerrilla group. The levels of violence associated with the internal armed conflict – as well as other forms of violence – are the lowest CERAC has registered since 1984.